Comparing one dose of HPV vaccine in girls aged 9-14 years in Tanzania (DoRIS) with one dose in young women aged 15-20 years in Kenya (KEN SHE): an immunobridging analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: The first randomised controlled trial of single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine efficacy, the Kenya single-dose HPV-vaccine efficacy (KEN SHE) trial, showed greater than 97% efficacy against persistent HPV16 and HPV18 infection at 36 months among women in Kenya. We compared antibody responses after one dose of HPV vaccine in the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study (DoRIS), the first randomised trial of the single- dose regimen in girls aged 9-14 years, the target age range for vaccination, with those after one dose of the same vaccine in KEN SHE. METHODS: In the DoRIS trial, 930 girls aged 9-14 years in Tanzania were randomly assigned to one, two, or three doses of the 2-valent vaccine (Cervarix) or the 9-valent vaccine (Gardasil-9). The proportion seroconverting and geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) at month 24 after one dose were compared with those in women aged 15-20 years who were randomly assigned to one dose of the same vaccines at the same timepoint in KEN SHE. Batched samples were tested together by virus-like particle ELISA for HPV16 and HPV18 IgG antibodies. Non-inferiority of GMC ratios (DoRIS trial:KEN SHE) was predefined as a lower bound of the 95% CI less than 0·50. FINDINGS: Month 24 HPV16 and HPV18 antibody GMCs in DoRIS were similar or higher than those in KEN SHE. 2-valent GMC ratios were 0·90 (95% CI 0·72-1·14) for HPV16 and 1·02 (0·78-1·33) for HPV18. 9-valent GMC ratios were 1·44 (95% CI 1·14-1·82) and 1·47 (1·13-1·90), respectively. Non-inferiority of antibody GMCs and seropositivity was met for HPV16 and HPV18 for both vaccines. INTERPRETATION: HPV16 and HPV18 immune responses in young girls 24 months after a single dose of 2-valent or 9-valent HPV vaccine were comparable to those in young women who were randomly assigned to a single dose of the same vaccines and in whom efficacy had been shown. A single dose of HPV vaccine, when given to girls in the target age range for vaccination, induces immune responses that could be effective against persistent HPV16 and HPV18 infection at least two years after vaccination. FUNDING: The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the Foreign, Commonwealth, & Development Office, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trials scheme, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the US National Cancer Institute; the US National Institutes of Health, and the Francis and Dorothea Reed Endowed Chair in Infectious Diseases. TRANSLATION: For the KiSwahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Epidemiology of alcohol use and alcohol use disorders among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Tanzania: implications for ART adherence and case management.

Alcohol use disorders (AUD) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) are associated with poor health outcomes. This cross-sectional study examined current alcohol use and AUD among 300 PLHIV on ART at four HIV care centres in Northwest Tanzania. Participants' data were collected using questionnaires. Alcohol use was assessed using Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Logistic regression was used to examine associations between each outcome (current drinking and AUD) and sociodemographic and clinical factors. Association between alcohol use and ART adherence was also studied. The median age of participants was 43 years (IQR 19-71) and 41.3% were male. Twenty-two (7.3%) participants failed to take ART at least once in the last seven days. The prevalence of current drinking was 29.3% (95% CI 24.2-34.8%) and that of AUD was 11.3% (8.2%-15.5%). Males had higher odds of alcohol use (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.79-5.14) and AUD (3.89, 1.76-8.60). Alcohol use was associated with ART non-adherence (OR = 2.78, 1.10-7.04). There was a trend towards an association between AUD and non-adherence (OR = 2.91, 0.92-9.21). Alcohol use and AUD were common among PLHIV and showed evidence of associations with ART non-adherence. Screening patients for alcohol use and AUD in HIV clinics may increase ART adherence.

Prevalence of hypertension and high-normal blood pressure among young adults in Zimbabwe: findings from a large, cross-sectional population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the greatest driver of cardiovascular mortality and onset might be in youth. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for elevated blood pressure (hypertension ≥140 mm Hg systolic, ≥90 mm Hg diastolic, or both) and high-normal blood pressure (130-139 mm Hg systolic, 85-89 mm Hg diastolic, or both) among youth in Zimbabwe. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional survey of randomly sampled youth aged 18-24 years from 24 urban and peri-urban communities in three provinces (Harare, Bulawayo, and Mashonaland East) in Zimbabwe was conducted between Oct 4, 2021, and June 2, 2022. Standardised questionnaires were used by research assistants to collect sociodemographic, behavioural, and clinical data. Height, bodyweight, and blood pressure were recorded. Three seated blood pressure measurements were taken at standardised timepoints during participant interview using a digital sphygmomanometer and cuffs sized on mid-upper arm circumference. The association of potential risk factors with elevated blood pressure was examined using multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: 17 682 (94·4%) of 18 729 eligible participants were recruited, 17 637 (99·7%) of whom had complete data, and 16 883 (95·7%) of whom were included in the final study sample after excluding 754 (4·3%) pregnant women. The median age was 20 years (IQR 19-22), 9973 (59·1%) participants were female, and 6910 (40·9%) were male. The prevalence of hypertension was 7·4% (95% CI 7·0-7·8) and high-normal blood pressure was 12·2% (11·7-12·7). Overall, prevalence of hypertension was higher in men (8·7% [95% CI 8·2-9·6]) than in women (6·6% [6·0-6·9]), but with age increased to similar levels (at age 18 years 7·3% [6·2-8·6] and 4·3% [3·5-5·2]; at age 23-24 years 10·9% [9·3-12·6] and 9·5% [8·4-10·7] in men and women, respectively). After adjusting for factors associated with hypertension in the crude analysis, hypertension was associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1·53 [95% CI 1·36-1·74]), increasing age (age 19-20 years 1·20 [1·00-1·44]; age 21-22 years 1·45 [1·20-1·75]; age 23-24 years 1·90 [1·57-2·30], vs age 18 years), and BMI of 30·0 kg/m2 or more (1·94 [1·53-2·47] vs 18·5-24·9 kg/m2). A BMI of 18·5 kg/m2 or less (0·79 [0·63-0·98] vs 18·5-24·9 kg/m2) and living with HIV (0·71 [0·55-0·92]) were associated with lower odds of hypertension. INTERPRETATION: Prevalence of elevated blood pressure is high among urban and peri-urban youth in Zimbabwe and increases rapidly with age. Further research is needed to understand drivers of blood pressure elevation and the extent of target organ damage in youth in Zimbabwe and similar sub-Saharan African settings, to guide implementation of prevention and management strategies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Cluster randomized controlled trial analysis at the cluster level: The clan command.

In this article, we introduce a new command, clan, that conducts a cluster-level analysis of cluster randomized trials. The command simplifies adjusting for individual- and cluster-level covariates and can also account for a stratified design. It can be used to analyze a continuous, binary, or rate outcome.

Evaluation of a community-based aetiological approach for sexually transmitted infections management for youth in Zimbabwe: intervention findings from the STICH cluster randomised trial.

Background: Young people are at high risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We report STI testing uptake, prevalence and incidence within a community-based integrated HIV and sexual and reproductive health service for youth, being evaluated in a cluster randomised trial in Zimbabwe. Methods: This paper reports the intervention findings of the cluster randomised trial whereby STI testing was offered to all service attendees (16-24 years) in 12 intervention clusters over 12 months between October 5, 2020, and December 17, 2021, in Zimbabwe. Testing for Chlamydia trachomatis [CT] and Neisseria gonorrhoeae [NG] was offered to males and females with results available in one week and follow-up of test-positive clients by telephone. Trichomonas vaginalis [TV] testing was offered to females only with same day results and treatment. Youth testing positive for any STI were offered partner notification slips and free treatment for partners. This trial was registered with ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN15013425. Findings: Overall, 8549/9891 (86.1%) eligible youth accepted CT/NG testing. Prevalence of CT and NG was 14.7% (95% CI 13.6-15.8) and 2.8% (95% CI 2.2-3.6) respectively. Combined prevalence of CT, NG or TV in women was 23.2% (95% CI 21.5-25.0). After adjusting for cluster, age and sex, the odds of NG were increased in those living with HIV (aOR 3.14, 95% CI 2.21-4.47). The incidence rate among those who initially tested negative for CT or NG was 25.6/100PY (95% CI 20.6-31.8). CT/NG treatment uptake was 924/1526 (60.6%). TV treatment uptake was 483/489 (98.8%). A partner returned for treatment for 103/1807 clients (5.7%). Interpretation: Our findings show high acceptability of STI testing among youth. STI prevalence was high particularly among females and youth with HIV, underscoring the need for integration of HIV and STI services. Funding: MRC/ESRC/DFID/NIHR (MR/T040327/1) and Wellcome Trust (206316/Z/17/Z).

Addressing sociodemographic disparities in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among youth in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccine acceptance research has mostly originated from high-income countries and reasons why youth may not get vaccinated may differ in low-income settings. Understanding vaccination coverage across different population groups and the sociocultural influences in healthcare delivery is important to inform targeted vaccination campaigns. METHODS: A population-based survey was conducted in 24 communities across three provinces (Harare, Bulawayo and Mashonaland East) in Zimbabwe between October 2021 and June 2022. Youth aged 18-24 years were randomly selected using multistage sampling. Sociodemographic characteristics, COVID-19 vaccination uptake and reasons for non-uptake were collected, and odds of vaccination was investigated using logistic regression. RESULTS: 17 682 youth were recruited in the survey (n=10 742, 60.8% female). The median age of participants was 20 (IQR: 19-22) years. Almost two thirds (n=10 652, 60.2%) reported receiving at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. A higher proportion of men than women had been vaccinated (68.9% vs 54.7%), and vaccination prevalence increased with age (<19 years: 57.5%, 20-22: 61.5%, >23: 62.2%). Lack of time to get vaccinated, belief that the vaccine was unsafe and anxiety about side effects (particularly infertility) were the main reasons for not getting vaccinated. Factors associated with vaccination were male sex (OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.58 to 1.80), increasing age (>22 years: OR=1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.21), education level (postsecondary: OR=4.34, 95% CI 3.27 to 5.76) and socioeconomic status (least poor: OR=1.32, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.47). CONCLUSION: This study found vaccine inequity across age, sex, educational attainment and socioeconomic status among youth. Strategies should address these inequities by understanding concerns and tailoring vaccine campaigns to specific groups.

Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.

Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.

Associations between age of menarche, early sexual debut and high-risk sexual behaviour among urban Tanzanian schoolgirls: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional survey aimed to explore associations between age of menarche, early sexual debut and high-risk sexual behaviour among urban Tanzanian schoolgirls. METHODS: Secondary schoolgirls aged 17-18 years from Mwanza, Tanzania, participated in structured face-to-face questionnaire-based interviews, conducted by nurses and clinicians. Age of menarche was evaluated in categories of 11-12, 13-14, 15-16 or ≥17 years. Primary outcome measures were self-reported early sexual debut (first vaginal sex at <16 years) and high-risk sexual behaviour, including non-use of condoms, having sex for gifts/money, having older sexual partners and/or other risky behaviours. RESULTS: Of 401 girls enrolled, 174 (43.4%) reported prior vaginal sex. Prevalence of early sexual debut was 14.2% but pressured/forced sex and risky sexual behaviours were common. Adjusted for potential confounding, younger age at menarche was associated with early sexual debut (adjusted odds ratio for linear trend: 1.88 per category, 95% confidence interval: 1.21-2.92, p = 0.005). This association remained after excluding girls with first sex at <8 years or experiencing pressure or force at first sex. Further, adjusted for potential confounding (including ever experiencing forced sex), early sexual debut was associated with high-risk sexual behaviour (adjusted odds ratio: 2.85, 95% confidence interval: 1.38-5.88, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Among urban Tanzanian school girls, younger age of menarche was associated with early sexual debut, and early sexual debut was associated with high-risk sexual behaviour. Researchers and public health professionals developing and delivering interventions aimed at preventing adverse sexual health outcomes should consider the impact of these early biological and sexual exposures.

The Presence of Hemoglobin in Cervicovaginal Lavage Is Not Associated With Genital Schistosomiasis in Zambian Women From the BILHIV Study.

Background: Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) occurs when Schistosoma haematobium eggs are deposited in reproductive tissue. Female genital schistosomiasis in the cervical mucosa is associated with increased vascularity. If FGS is associated with the presence of hemoglobin in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL), the use of urinary reagent strips to detect hemoglobin in CVL could supplement FGS diagnosis. Methods: Nonmenstruating, nonpregnant, sexually active women aged 18-31 participating in the HPTN 071 (PopART) Population-Cohort were invited in 2 Zambian communities. Genital self-swabs and a urine specimen were collected at a home visit, and CVL and hand-held colposcopy were performed at a midwife led clinic visit. Urinary reagent strips were used to identify hemoglobin in CVL. Eggs and circulating anodic antigen (CAA) were detected from urine. Visual-FGS was defined as the presence of sandy patches, rubbery papules, or abnormal blood vessels. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-FGS was defined as Schistosoma deoxyribonucleic acid detected by real-time PCR on CVL or cervical or vaginal swab. Results: Of 209 women with home genital swabs and companion CVL specimens, 66% (138 of 209) had detectable CVL hemoglobin, 13.4% (28 of 209) had PCR-defined FGS, and 17.2% (36 of 209) had visual-FGS. Active Schistosoma infection, diagnosed by CAA or urine microscopy, was present in 21.0% (44 of 209) participants. Active Schistosoma infection (P = .4), PCR-FGS (P = 0.7), and visual-FGS (P = 0.3) were not associated with CVL hemoglobin presence. Results did not differ in subgroups with high infection burden (cycle threshold < 35 or 2-3 positive genital PCR). Conclusions: Polymerase chain reaction-FGS, visual-FGS, and active Schistosoma infection were not associated with the presence of CVL hemoglobin. Further research is needed to establish accessible community-based FGS diagnostics.

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. METHODS: In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. FINDINGS: Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40-60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. INTERPRETATION: A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

Immunogenicity and safety of one-dose human papillomavirus vaccine compared with two or three doses in Tanzanian girls (DoRIS): an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 15% of girls aged 9-14 years worldwide have been vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) with the recommended two-dose or three-dose schedules. A one-dose HPV vaccine schedule would be simpler and cheaper to deliver. We report immunogenicity and safety results of different doses of two different HPV vaccines in Tanzanian girls. METHODS: In this open-label, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial, we enrolled healthy schoolgirls aged 9-14 years from Government schools in Mwanza, Tanzania. Eligible participants were randomly assigned to receive one, two, or three doses of either the 2-valent vaccine (Cervarix, GSK Biologicals, Rixensart) or the 9-valent vaccine (Gardasil-9, Sanofi Pasteur MSD, Lyon). The primary outcome was HPV 16 specific or HPV 18 specific seropositivity following one dose compared with two or three doses of the same HPV vaccine 24 months after vaccination. Safety was assessed as solicited adverse events up to 30 days after each dose and unsolicited adverse events up to 24 months after vaccination or to last study visit. The primary outcome was done in the per-protocol population, and safety was analysed in the total vaccinated population. This study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02834637. FINDINGS: Between Feb 23, 2017, and Jan 6, 2018, we screened 1002 girls for eligibility. 72 girls were excluded. 930 girls were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive one dose of Cervarix (155 participants), two doses of Cervarix (155 participants), three doses of Cervarix (155 participants), one dose of Gardasil-9 (155 participants), two doses of Gardasil-9 (155 participants), or three doses of Gardasil-9 (155 participants). 922 participants received all scheduled doses within the defined window (three withdrew, one was lost to follow-up, and one died before completion; two received their 6-month doses early, and one received the wrong valent vaccine in error; all 930 participants were included in the total vaccinated cohort). Retention at 24 months was 918 (99%) of 930 participants. In the according-to-protocol cohort, at 24 months, 99% of participants who received one dose of either HPV vaccine were seropositive for HPV 16 IgG antibodies, compared with 100% of participants who received two doses, and 100% of participants who received three doses. This met the prespecified non-inferiority criteria. Anti-HPV 18 seropositivity at 24 months did not meet non-inferiority criteria for one dose compared to two doses or three doses for either vaccine, although more than 98% of girls in all groups had HPV 18 antibodies. 53 serious adverse events (SAEs) were experienced by 42 (4·5%) of 930 girls, the most common of which was hospital admission for malaria. One girl died of malaria. Number of events was similar between groups and no SAEs were considered related to vaccination. INTERPRETATION: A single dose of the 2-valent or 9-valent HPV vaccine in girls aged 9-14 years induced robust immune responses up to 24 months, suggesting that this reduced dose regimen could be suitable for prevention of HPV infection among girls in the target age group for vaccination. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development/UK Medical Research Council/Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trials Scheme, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US National Cancer Institute. TRANSLATION: For the KiSwahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Comparing one dose of HPV vaccine in girls aged 9-14 years in Tanzania (DoRIS) with one dose of HPV vaccine in historical cohorts: an immunobridging analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are given as a two-dose schedule in children aged 9-14 years, or as three doses in older individuals. We compared antibody responses after one dose of HPV vaccine in the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study (DoRIS), a randomised trial of different HPV vaccine schedules in Tanzania, to those from two observational HPV vaccine trials that found high efficacy of one dose up to 11 years against HPV16 and HPV18 (Costa Rica Vaccine Trial [CVT] and Institutional Agency for Research on Cancer [IARC] India trial). METHODS: In this immunobridging analysis of an open-label randomised controlled trial, girls were recruited from 54 government schools in Mwanza, Tanzania, into the DoRIS trial. Girls were eligible if they were aged 9-14 years, healthy, and HIV negative. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1:1), using permutated block sizes of 12, 18, and 24, to one, two, or three doses of the 2-valent vaccine (Cervarix, GSK Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium) or the 9-valent vaccine (Gardasil 9, Sanofi Pasteur MSD, Lyon, France). For this immunobridging analysis, the primary objective was to compare geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) at 24 months after one dose in the per-protocol population compared with in historical cohorts: the one-dose 2-valent vaccine group in DoRIS was compared with recipients of the 2-valent vaccine Cervarix from CVT and the one-dose 9-valent vaccine group in DoRIS was compared with recipients of the 4-valent vaccine Gardasil (Merck Sharp & Dohme, Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA) from the IARC India trial. Samples were tested together with virus-like particle ELISA for HPV16 and HPV18 IgG antibodies. Non-inferiority of GMC ratios (DoRIS trial vs historical cohort) was predefined as when the lower bound of the 95% CI was greater than 0·50. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02834637. FINDINGS: Between Feb 23, 2017, and Jan 6, 2018, we screened 1002 girls for eligibility, of whom 930 were enrolled into DoRIS and 155 each were assigned to one dose, two doses, or three doses of 2-valent vaccine, or one dose, two doses, or three doses of 9-valent vaccine. 154 (99%) participants in the one-dose 2-valent vaccine group (median age 10 years [IQR 9-12]) and 152 (98%) in the one-dose 9-valent vaccine group (median age 10 years [IQR 9-12]) were vaccinated and attended the 24 month visit, and so were included in the analysis. 115 one-dose recipients from the CVT (median age 21 years [19-23]) and 139 one-dose recipients from the IARC India trial (median age 14 years [13-16]) were included in the analysis. At 24 months after vaccination, GMCs for HPV16 IgG antibodies were 22·9 international units (IU) per mL (95% CI 19·9-26·4; n=148) for the DoRIS 2-valent vaccine group versus 17·7 IU/mL (13·9-22·5; n=97) for the CVT (GMC ratio 1·30 [95% CI 1·00-1·68]) and 13·7 IU/mL (11·9-15·8; n=145) for the DoRIS 9-valent vaccine group versus 6·7 IU/mL (5·5-8·2; n=131) for the IARC India trial (GMC ratio 2·05 [1·61-2·61]). GMCs for HPV18 IgG antibodies were 9·9 IU/mL (95% CI 8·5-11·5: n=141) for the DoRIS 2-valent vaccine group versus 8·0 IU/mL (6·4-10·0; n=97) for the CVT trial (GMC ratio 1·23 [95% CI 0·95-1·60]) and 5·7 IU/mL (4·9-6·8; n=136) for the DoRIS 9-valent vaccine group versus 2·2 IU/mL (1·9-2·7; n=129) for the IARC India trial (GMC ratio 2·12 [1·59-2·83]). Non-inferiority of antibody GMCs was met for each vaccine for both HPV16 and HPV18. INTERPRETATION: One dose of HPV vaccine in young girls might provide sufficient protection against persistent HPV infection. A one-dose schedule would reduce costs, simplify vaccine delivery, and expand access to the vaccine. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development/UK Medical Research Council/Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trials Scheme, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US National Cancer Institute. TRANSLATION: For the KiSwahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Cluster randomised trials with a binary outcome and a small number of clusters: comparison of individual and cluster level analysis method.

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are often designed with a small number of clusters, but it is not clear which analysis methods are optimal when the outcome is binary. This simulation study aimed to determine (i) whether cluster-level analysis (CL), generalised linear mixed models (GLMM), and generalised estimating equations with sandwich variance (GEE) approaches maintain acceptable type-one error including the impact of non-normality of cluster effects and low prevalence, and if so (ii) which methods have the greatest power. We simulated CRTs with 8-30 clusters, altering the cluster-size, outcome prevalence, intracluster correlation coefficient, and cluster effect distribution. We analysed each dataset with weighted and unweighted CL; GLMM with adaptive quadrature and restricted pseudolikelihood; GEE with Kauermann-and-Carroll and Fay-and-Graubard sandwich variance using independent and exchangeable working correlation matrices. P-values were from a t-distribution with degrees of freedom (DoF) as clusters minus cluster-level parameters; GLMM pseudolikelihood also used Satterthwaite and Kenward-Roger DoF. RESULTS: Unweighted CL, GLMM pseudolikelihood, and Fay-and-Graubard GEE with independent or exchangeable working correlation matrix controlled type-one error in > 97% scenarios with clusters minus parameters DoF. Cluster-effect distribution and prevalence of outcome did not usually affect analysis method performance. GEE had the least power. With 20-30 clusters, GLMM had greater power than CL with varying cluster-size but similar power otherwise; with fewer clusters, GLMM had lower power with common cluster-size, similar power with medium variation, and greater power with large variation in cluster-size. CONCLUSION: We recommend that CRTs with ≤ 30 clusters and a binary outcome use an unweighted CL or restricted pseudolikelihood GLMM both with DoF clusters minus cluster-level parameters.

The association between HIV stigma and HIV incidence in the context of universal testing and treatment: analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in Zambia and South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate the association between individual and community-level measures of HIV stigma and HIV incidence within the 21 communities participating in the HPTN (071) PopART trial in Zambia and South Africa. METHODS: Secondary analysis of data from a population-based cohort followed-up over 36 months between 2013 and 2018. The outcome was rate of incident HIV infection among individuals who were HIV negative at cohort entry. Individual-level exposures, measured in a random sample of all participants, were: (1) perception of stigma in the community, (2) perception of stigma in health settings and (3) fear and judgement towards people living with HIV. Individual-level analyses were conducted with adjusted, individual-level Poisson regression. Community-level HIV stigma exposures drew on data reported by people living with HIV, health workers and community members. We used linear regression to explore the association between HIV stigma and community-level HIV incidence. RESULTS: Among 8172 individuals who were HIV negative and answered individual-level stigma questions at enrolment to the cohort, there was no evidence of a statistically significant association between any domain of HIV stigma and risk of incident HIV infection. Among the full cohort of 26,110 individuals among whom HIV incidence was measured, there was no evidence that community-level HIV incidence was associated with any domain of HIV stigma. CONCLUSIONS: HIV stigma is often cited as a barrier to the effectiveness of HIV prevention programming. However, in the setting for the HPTN 071 "PopART trial," measured stigma alone was not associated with the risk of HIV infection.

Validation of the isothermal Schistosoma haematobium Recombinase Polymerase Amplification (RPA) assay, coupled with simplified sample preparation, for diagnosing female genital schistosomiasis using cervicovaginal lavage and vaginal self-swab samples.

BACKGROUND: Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) is a neglected and disabling gynecological disease that can result from infection with the parasitic trematode Schistosoma haematobium. Accurate diagnosis of FGS is crucial for effective case management, surveillance and control. However, current methods for diagnosis and morbidity assessment can be inaccessible to those at need, labour intensive, costly and unreliable. Molecular techniques such as PCR can be used to reliably diagnose FGS via the detection of Schistosoma DNA using cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) samples as well as lesser-invasive vaginal self-swab (VSS) and cervical self-swab samples. PCR is, however, currently unsuited for use in most endemic settings. As such, in this study, we assessed the use of a rapid and portable S. haematobium recombinase polymerase amplification (Sh-RPA) isothermal molecular diagnostic assay, coupled with simplified sample preparation methodologies, to detect S. haematobium DNA using CVL and VSS samples provided by patients in Zambia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: VSS and CVL samples were screened for FGS using a previously developed Sh-RPA assay. DNA was isolated from VSS and CVL samples using the QIAamp Mini kit (n = 603 and 527, respectively). DNA was also isolated from CVL samples using two rapid and portable DNA extraction methods: 1) the SpeedXtract Nucleic Acid Kit (n = 223) and 2) the Extracta DNA Tissue Prep Kit (n = 136). Diagnostic performance of the Sh-RPA using VSS DNA extacts (QIAamp Mini kit) as well as CVL DNA extracts (QIAamp Mini kit, SpeedXtract Nucleic Acid Kit and Extracta DNA Tissue Prep Kit) was then compared to a real-time PCR reference test. Results suggest that optimal performance may be achieved when the Sh-RPA is used with PuVSS samples (sensitivity 93.3%; specificity 96.6%), however no comparisons between different DNA extraction methods using VSS samples could be carried out within this study. When using CVL samples, sensitivity of the Sh-RPA ranged between 71.4 and 85.7 across all three DNA extraction methods when compared to real-time PCR using CVL samples prepared using the QIAamp Mini kit. Interestingly, of these three DNA extraction methods, the rapid and portable SpeedXtract method had the greatest sensitivity and specificity (85.7% and 98.1%, respectively). Specificity of the Sh-RPA was >91% across all comparisons. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results supplement previous findings, highlighting that the use of genital self-swab sampling for diagnosing FGS should be explored further whilst also demonstrating that rapid and portable DNA isolation methods can be used to detect S. haematobium DNA within clinical samples using RPA. Although further development and assessment is needed, it was concluded that the Sh-RPA, coupled with simplified sample preparation, shows excellent promise as a rapid and sensitive diagnostic tool capable of diagnosing FGS at the point-of-care in resource-poor schistosomiasis-endemic settings.

Identifying youth at high risk for sexually transmitted infections in community-based settings using a risk prediction tool: a validation study.

BACKGROUND : Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) are the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) worldwide. In the absence of affordable point-of-care STI tests, WHO recommends STI testing based on risk factors. This study aimed to develop a prediction tool with a sensitivity of > 90% and efficiency (defined as the percentage of individuals that are eligible for diagnostic testing) of < 60%. METHODS: This study offered CT/NG testing as part of a cluster-randomised trial of community-based delivery of sexual and reproductive health services to youth aged 16-24 years in Zimbabwe. All individuals accepting STI testing completed an STI risk factor questionnaire. The outcome was positivity for either CT or NG. Backwards-stepwise logistic regression was performed with p ≥ 0.05 as criteria for exclusion. Coefficients of variables included in the final multivariable model were multiplied by 10 to generate weights for a STI risk prediction tool. A maximum likelihood Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) model was fitted, with the continuous variable score divided into 15 categories of equal size. Sensitivity, efficiency and number needed to screen were calculated for different cut-points. RESULTS: From 3 December 2019 to 5 February 2020, 1007 individuals opted for STI testing, of whom 1003 (99.6%) completed the questionnaire. CT/NG prevalence was 17.5% (95% CI 15.1, 19.8) (n = 175). CT/NG positivity was independently associated with being female, number of lifetime sexual partners, relationship status, HIV status, self-assessed STI risk and past or current pregnancy. The STI risk prediction score including those variables ranged from 2 to 46 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68, 0.76). Two cut-points were chosen: (i) 23 for optimised sensitivity (75.9%) and specificity (59.3%) and (ii) 19 to maximise sensitivity (82.4%) while keeping efficiency at < 60% (59.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of STIs among youth, even in those with no or one reported risk factor, may preclude the use of risk prediction tools for selective STI testing. At a cut-point of 19 one in six young people with STIs would be missed.

PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.

Association of Female Genital Schistosomiasis With the Cervicovaginal Microbiota and Sexually Transmitted Infections in Zambian Women.

BACKGROUND: The cervicovaginal microbiota, including sexually transmitted infections (STIs), have not been well described in female genital schistosomiasis (FGS). METHODS: Women (aged 18-31, sexually active, nonpregnant) were invited to participate at the final follow-up of the HPTN 071 (PopART) Population Cohort in January-August 2018. We measured key species of the cervicovaginal microbiota (Lactobacillus crispatus, L. iners, Gardnerella vaginalis, Atopobium vaginae, and Candida) and STIs (Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and Mycoplasma genitalium) using quantitative PCR (qPCR). We evaluated associations of the microbiota and STI presence and concentration with FGS (qPCR-detected Schistosoma DNA in any of 3 genital specimens). RESULTS: The presence and concentration of key cervicovaginal species did not differ between participants with (n = 30) or without FGS (n = 158). A higher proportion of participants with FGS had T. vaginalis compared with FGS-negative women (P = .08), with further analysis showing that T. vaginalis was more prevalent among women with ≥2 Schistosoma qPCR-positive genital specimens (50.0%, 8/16) than among FGS-negative women (21.5%, 34/158; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: We found weak evidence of an association between the presence of T. vaginalis and FGS, with a stronger association in women with a higher-burden FGS infection. Additional research is needed on potential between-parasite interactions, especially regarding HIV-1 vulnerability.

Female Genital Schistosomiasis and HIV-1 Incidence in Zambian Women: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) has been associated with prevalent HIV-1. We estimated the incidence of HIV-1 infection in Zambian women with and without FGS. METHODS: Women (aged 18-31, nonpregnant, sexually active) were invited to participate in this study in January-August 2018 at the final follow-up of the HPTN 071 (PopART) Population Cohort. HIV-1-negative participants at enrollment (n = 492) were included in this analysis, with testing to confirm incident HIV-1 performed in HPTN 071 (PopART). The association of incident HIV-1 infection with FGS (Schistosoma DNA detected by polymerase chain reaction [PCR] in any genital specimen) was assessed with exact Poisson regression. RESULTS: Incident HIV-1 infections were observed in 4.1% (20/492) of participants. Women with FGS were twice as likely to seroconvert as women without FGS but with no statistical evidence for a difference (adjusted rate ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 0.21-12.30; P = .33). Exploratory analysis suggested an association with HIV-1 acquisition among women with ≥2 positive genital PCR specimens (rate ratio, 6.02; 95% CI, 0.58-34.96; P = .13). CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher HIV seroconversion rates in women with FGS, there was no statistical evidence of association, possibly due to low power. Further longitudinal studies should investigate this association in a setting with higher schistosomiasis endemicity.

Assortative social mixing and sex disparities in tuberculosis burden.

Globally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0-30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11-31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years-insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4-14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.